Politics is where prediction markets made their name, and it is still where the biggest money goes on election nights. These are the political markets with the most trading right now across Polymarket and Kalshi: control of Congress, governors and mayors, world leaders, and the policy fights in between.
Politics: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated just now.
Why traders watch political markets
Polls tell you what people said last week. A market tells you what people are willing to bet on today, and it moves within minutes of a debate, a court ruling or a resignation. That speed is the appeal. The catch is that thin markets can be pushed around by a few large traders, so a price backed by millions in volume deserves more weight than one backed by a few thousand.
When the same question trades on both venues, small price gaps are normal. Kalshi is regulated in the US and settles in dollars; Polymarket’s main exchange settles in pUSD, a USDC-backed dollar token, and draws a more international crowd. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison explains why their prices drift apart.
Market guides
In-depth pages with live odds from both venues, side by side:
Race pages: Senate in Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska and South Carolina; governor in Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and California. Courts: Supreme Court markets. World affairs: geopolitics markets.
Election night 2026: live odds
Control, every race, price gaps and each state's results timing, on one screen.
Open →2026 midterm election odds
House and Senate control, balance of power and key races, live from both venues.
Open →House control 2026 odds
Which party wins the House, by how many seats, and how the markets settle.
Open →Senate control 2026 odds
Which party wins the Senate, seat counts and every key race.
Open →Alaska Senate race 2026 odds
Sullivan vs Peltola, decided by ranked choice on November 18.
Open →Iowa Senate race 2026 odds
Hinson vs Turek for the seat Joni Ernst is leaving.
Open →Kansas Senate race 2026 odds
Marshall vs Hamilton, the surprise race of the cycle.
Open →Maine Senate race 2026 odds
Collins vs Jackson, and why ranked-choice voting could slow the result.
Open →Michigan Senate race 2026 odds
El-Sayed vs Rogers for an open seat Democrats must hold.
Open →South Carolina Senate race 2026 odds
Graham Nordone vs Andrews for Lindsey Graham's seat.
Open →Texas Senate race 2026 odds
Who wins Texas, and by how much, on both venues.
Open →California governor race 2026 odds
Who succeeds Newsom, live from both venues.
Open →Florida governor race 2026 odds
Donalds vs Jolly for the open seat.
Open →Iowa governor race 2026 odds
Sand vs Lahn for the open seat.
Open →Ohio governor race 2026 odds
Acton vs Ramaswamy, plus the Husted vs Brown Senate special.
Open →Texas governor race 2026 odds
Abbott vs Hinojosa, live from both venues.
Open →Wisconsin governor race 2026 odds
Crowley vs Tiffany for the open seat.
Open →Los Angeles mayor race 2026 odds
Live odds on the LA mayoral runoff.
Open →Government shutdown odds
Live odds on the next funding deadline.
Open →CLARITY Act odds
Will the crypto market-structure bill become law, and who votes for it.
Open →2028 presidential election odds
Who wins in 2028, both nominations and the running mates.
Open →Supreme Court odds
Retirement watch and the Kalshi case.
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