Prediction Tape puts the live prices from the world’s biggest prediction markets on one screen and explains what they mean in plain English. We’re independent: no prediction market owns us, pays us or decides what we write. Everything here is published by the Prediction Tape editorial team.
How we work
- Methodology: where our Polymarket and Kalshi data comes from, how often it refreshes, how prices, odds, price gaps and the leaderboard are calculated, and the limits of the data.
- Editorial policy: how we research, source and date our guides, and how we handle legal topics and court cases that are still being fought.
- Corrections: how to report an error, and a dated log of the corrections we’ve made.
- How we make money: we currently have no affiliate relationships, sponsors or advertising, and we explain how we’d disclose any in future.
Where the numbers come from
Market data comes from the public feeds that Polymarket and Kalshi publish for developers. Our server fetches the most actively traded open markets every five minutes, and open pages check for new prices every minute. A price reads as the market’s chance: a 62¢ share means 62%. Dated snapshots built from the same feeds are in our data section, and the companies behind the platforms are covered in our company pages. The full detail is in our methodology.
How we write
We check fees, rules and availability against each platform’s own documentation, and legal developments against court records, regulator statements and reporting, and we date the facts that change often. Legal guides list their sources with dates and say when a ruling is still under appeal. See our editorial policy.
What we are not
We don’t take bets, hold money or run markets. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Prediction markets involve real risk, and they’re not available everywhere: check the rules where you live before signing up anywhere. See our disclaimer.
Contact
Email us at [email protected] to report a mistake, a data problem or an outdated fact. We read every message and log significant fixes on our corrections page. We can’t give personal trading or investment advice.