South Carolina’s 2026 Senate race is for the seat Lindsey Graham held until he died in July 2026. Republican Darline Graham Nordone, his sister and the interim senator, faces Democrat Annie Andrews on November 3, 2026. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the South Carolina Senate race?
Live odds · both venues
South Carolina Senate 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate’s party wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. A price between 35¢ and 65¢ means traders see a real contest.
How the race got here
Sen. Lindsey Graham died in July 2026, aged 71. On July 13, Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham Nordone, as interim senator until the current term ends on January 3, 2027. She then ran for the full term and won the Republican special primary runoff on August 25, 2026, according to the AP’s projection. Her opponent, Democrat Annie Andrews, pushed for televised debates, and Graham Nordone agreed in September to a debate on SCETV. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in South Carolina in more than 20 years. Checked October 2026 against local reporting (WIS, WBTV/Live 5).
Why South Carolina matters
South Carolina isn’t on the usual list of Democratic targets, so a competitive price here says more about the national mood than about one state. Democrats’ main path to a Senate majority runs through races such as Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. See Senate control 2026 for the full picture.
More South Carolina markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
How this market settles
- Polymarket resolves on the winner of the election, including any runoff, once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
- Kalshi settles on the party of whoever is sworn in as South Carolina’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.
Both markets are about the party’s nominee: if a nominee were replaced before election day, the contracts would follow the new nominee. Rules as published on each market, checked October 28, 2026. Until a market settles, a price near $1 is still a position you can sell, not a payout. For when results come in, see our election night hub.
FAQ
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Related: Senate control 2026 · Kansas Senate race · Iowa Senate race · Election night hub · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap