Iowa has an open Senate seat for the first time since 2014. Republican Joni Ernst is not seeking a third term, and the race on November 3, 2026 is between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the Iowa Senate race?
Live odds · both venues
Iowa Senate 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. A price between 35¢ and 65¢ means traders see a genuine contest.
Margin of victory
Kalshi also runs a market on which Senate race will be the closest of the cycle, a useful way to see which states traders expect to go down to the wire:
Live odds · Kalshi
Closest Senate race of 2026
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The candidates
Ashley Hinson is a sitting US representative who entered the race after Ernst’s announcement in 2025 and quickly won the endorsements of President Trump and national Republican leaders. Josh Turek is a member of the Iowa House, a Paralympic medallist and former wheelchair basketball pro, who won the Democratic primary on June 2, 2026. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.
Why Iowa matters
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate, and most of their path runs through Republican-held seats. Iowa has voted Republican in recent statewide federal races, so a Democratic win here would be one of the bigger upsets of the night, and the price here is a good test of how strong traders think the Democratic wave is. See Senate control 2026 for the full picture.
More Iowa markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
How this market settles
- Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
- Kalshi settles on who is sworn in as Iowa’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.
A close race may not be called on the night. Until a market settles it can trade well above 90¢ without paying out, and you can sell at the market price at any time. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.
FAQ
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Related: Senate control 2026 · Maine Senate race · Michigan Senate race · Ohio governor race · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap