Which party will control the US Senate after the November 3, 2026 midterms? These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, plus the individual races that will decide it. Each price is what a share costs that pays $1 if that party wins control, so it reads as the market’s chance.
Live odds · both venues
Senate control after the 2026 midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
The maths of a Senate majority
Republicans held 53 seats going into 2026 and Democrats 47, counting the independents who caucus with them. A majority takes 51 seats, or 50 plus the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. With a Republican vice president, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control; Republicans can lose up to three and keep it.
35 seats are on the ballot: the 33 regular seats in this cycle plus special elections in Ohio and Florida to fill seats vacated in 2025.
How many seats will each party win?
Live odds · Polymarket
Republican Senate seats after the midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The races that decide it
Senate races ranked by trading
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 3 min ago.
The most traded races are the ones markets see as competitive. A seat priced between 35% and 65% is a genuine toss-up; anything above 85% is treated as safe. Our Texas Senate page covers one of the most-watched contests in detail.
What moves Senate odds
- Polls in close states. A run of good polls in two or three key states shifts the control market quickly.
- Candidate news. Scandals, debates and endorsements move individual race prices, and control odds follow.
- The national environment. Presidential approval and the economy lift or sink a whole party’s candidates together.
- Election night. Early results from East Coast states can swing the market within minutes.
When will Senate control settle?
On Polymarket, the Senate goes to the party that wins a majority of voting seats; at 50–50 it goes to the party that holds the vice presidency. Runoffs count even if they’re held after November, and the market’s sources are state election authorities, Congress and a consensus of credible reporting. Kalshi can settle early once a consensus of media calls projects control; otherwise it settles on the party of the Senate’s President pro tempore on February 1, 2027. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.
That matters because a few seats can take days. Maine counts ranked-choice ballots in Augusta if no candidate wins a majority, which can take a week or more, and Georgia holds a runoff on December 1, 2026 if no candidate clears 50%. If control comes down to those seats, expect these markets to stay open, and trade, well after election night.
When each state reports, from Georgia at 7 p.m. Eastern to Alaska after midnight, is on our election night hub.
Race pages: Maine · Michigan · Iowa · Texas · Ohio (Senate special and governor)
FAQ
Who is favoured to win the Senate in 2026?
How many seats do Democrats need to flip the Senate?
When will we know who controls the Senate?
Related: 2026 midterms · House control 2026 · All politics markets · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap