Michigan’s open Senate seat is one of the races that will decide control of the chamber on November 3, 2026. Democrat Gary Peters is retiring, and the race is between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the Michigan Senate race?
Live odds · both venues
Michigan Senate 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is what a share costs that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. A price of 65¢ is roughly −186 in American odds; the odds converter translates any price.
Margin of victory
Kalshi also prices how close the race will be. Each range is a separate outcome, and together they show whether traders expect a comfortable win or a long night:
Live odds · Kalshi
Michigan Senate: margin of victory
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The candidates
Abdul El-Sayed won the August Democratic primary on a progressive platform, narrowly beating Rep. Haley Stevens, who had the backing of much of the state party’s leadership, despite heavy outside spending against him. Mike Rogers, a former congressman and former FBI agent, was unopposed for the Republican nomination. It’s his second Senate run: in 2024 he lost to Elissa Slotkin by roughly 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.
Why Michigan matters for Senate control
Republicans go into the election with 53 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four to take the Senate, so they can’t afford to lose a seat they already hold. That makes Michigan a must-hold for them, and a Republican win here would make a Democratic majority much harder. The price on this page feeds directly into the Senate control market.
Senate combo markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
Election night: how this market settles
- Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they don’t agree, it waits for the official certified result.
- Kalshi technically settles on who is sworn in as Michigan’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but it can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.
Michigan counts large numbers of absentee ballots, so a close race may not be called on election night. Until a market settles, the price can sit at 90¢ or above without paying out. You can sell at the market price at any point. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.
FAQ
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Related: Senate control 2026 · Maine Senate race · Iowa Senate race · 2026 midterms · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap