Los Angeles chooses its mayor on November 3, 2026. City elections now line up with the state calendar: a primary in June, then a runoff between the top two candidates in November if nobody wins a majority outright. These are the live prediction market odds.
Live odds · Polymarket
Los Angeles mayor 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
What’s at stake
LA’s mayor runs the second-largest city in the US, with a budget of more than $10 billion, and will be in office when the city hosts the 2028 Olympic Games. Homelessness, housing costs and the recovery from the January 2025 wildfires have dominated the race.
Reading a two-candidate race
With only two outcomes, the prices should add up to about $1. A 55¢ / 45¢ market is close to a coin flip with a slight lean, and it can swing quickly on a poll, an endorsement or a debate. On election night, early mail-in results in California tend to be counted first, which can move the price before in-person votes are reported.
More California markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
Election night: how this market settles
Polymarket’s LA mayor market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting, and if the result is ambiguous, on official information from the City of Los Angeles. Los Angeles County counts mail ballots that are postmarked by election day and arrive within seven days, so a close runoff can take days or weeks to call, with the price moving as each batch is reported. Until it settles, a price near $1 is still a position you can sell, not a payout. Rules as published on the market, checked October 2026.
FAQ
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Related: California governor race · All politics markets