CLARITY Act Odds: Will the Crypto Bill Become Law in 2026?

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) would set out how cryptocurrencies are regulated in the US: which tokens count as securities, which as commodities, and which agency oversees them. Prediction markets are trading on whether it becomes law and who votes for it. These are the live odds.

Live odds · Polymarket

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Polymarket$24.6M traded

Outcome Polymarket

Yes 4%▲1

Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.

Where the bill stands

The House passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025, by 294 votes to 134, with support from both parties. In the Senate it stalled: on September 15, 2026, a cloture vote on the motion to proceed failed 49–50, short of the 60 votes needed just to begin debate. Sen. Thom Tillis voted no so that he could move to reconsider, which keeps a route open to bring the bill back, but passage in this Congress is widely seen as unlikely, not least because the midterms shorten the Senate calendar. The sticking points were ethics rules on federal officials’ crypto holdings and whether stablecoins can pay yield. Checked October 28, 2026.

Meanwhile the regulators are moving on their own: the CFTC sent a crypto rulemaking to the White House budget office for review in September 2026, and the SEC took comments on a proposed crypto-asset rule until October 20, 2026. Agency rules can be challenged or reversed more easily than a law, which is why the industry still wants the bill.

Which senators will vote for it?

Polymarket also lists a market on individual senators’ votes. Higher prices mean traders expect that senator to vote yes:

This market isn't trading on Polymarket or Kalshi right now. New markets usually open well before the event; check back soon.

Why it matters to crypto markets

Clear rules would decide whether most tokens fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission, how exchanges register, and what protections customers get. Crypto investors watch the bill closely because clearer rules could open the door to more institutional money. Read how traders bet on crypto prices on our crypto markets page.

FAQ

What is the CLARITY Act?

A US bill, H.R. 3633, that would create a legal framework for digital assets, dividing oversight between the CFTC and the SEC.

Has the CLARITY Act passed?

It passed the House in July 2025, but a Senate cloture vote failed 49–50 on September 15, 2026, so the Senate hasn’t taken it up. It would still need the Senate and the President’s signature. The live price above shows the market’s view of it becoming law in 2026.

Why are the odds low?

Because the Senate vote to start debate failed in September 2026 and little time is left before the year ends. The bill can be revived through a motion to reconsider, so the price isn’t zero.

Sources, checked October 28, 2026:

Orrick: The CLARITY Act stalls in the Senate (Oct 2, 2026)
FinTech Weekly: CLARITY Act cloture vote fails 49–50 (Sep 2026)

CLARITY Act odds

Where the bill stands

Which senators will vote for it?

Why it matters to crypto markets

FAQ