Prediction markets trade on the US Supreme Court too: whether a justice will retire, and whether the Court will take up big cases, including the fight over sports prediction markets. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Will Samuel Alito retire?
Live odds · Polymarket
Alito announces retirement by…
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Justices serve for life, so a seat opens only through retirement, death or impeachment. Retirement talk centres on the Court’s two oldest members, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. In 2026 NPR reported that Alito would retire, then retracted the story as a misunderstanding. A justice who retires usually announces it in advance, often timed to the end of a term so the president and Senate can confirm a successor.
Will the Court hear the prediction market case?
Live odds · Polymarket
Supreme Court takes the sports event contract case by…
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s ruling for Kalshi (Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299), and Crypto.com has separately asked it to review the Ninth Circuit’s ruling for Nevada (No. 26-344). See Is Kalshi legal? for where the case stands.
How these markets settle
Polymarket’s Alito market resolves Yes if Alito announces he will retire by the listed date, whenever the retirement would take effect, based on official announcements. Read each market’s rules before trading: “announces” and “retires” are different questions. Rules checked October 28, 2026.
FAQ
Is Justice Alito retiring?
Who replaces a retiring justice?
Sources, checked October 28, 2026:
- Federal News Network: will Justice Alito retire? (ages; NPR retraction) (Jul 6, 2026)
- US Supreme Court docket 26-299 and docket 26-344
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