Texas governor race 2026 odds

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin, who won her party’s nomination in March. The election is on November 3, 2026. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Who will win the Texas governor race?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. Use the odds converter to compare it with sportsbook odds.

The race

Abbott won his own primary easily and holds a large fundraising lead; Cook Political Report rated the race solid Republican. A Democrat last won the Texas governorship in 1990, and a win would make Abbott the state’s longest-serving governor. Texas also has a closely watched Senate race on the same ballot, and both venues list combos that tie the two together. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.

Governor and Senate combos

Both venues let you trade the Texas governor and Senate results together; a combo pays only if both legs come true:

Election night in Texas

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in most of Texas (9 p.m. in El Paso), and early-vote totals are usually reported first. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by 5 p.m. the next day. See every state’s timing on our election night hub.

How this market settles

• Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
• Kalshi settles on the party of the governor inaugurated after the 2026 election, and can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.

Rules as published on the venues’ governor markets, checked October 2026. Until a market settles, a price near $1 is a position you can sell, not a payout.

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Related: Texas Senate race · Election night hub · Ohio governor race · All politics markets