Alaska Senate race 2026 odds

Alaska’s Senate race is a genuine contest in a state Republicans usually win. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola on November 3, 2026, and the winner is decided by ranked-choice voting, so the result can take weeks. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Who will win the Alaska Senate race?

Both venues list several candidates, not just the two front-runners, and with two Dan Sullivans on the ballot we show each venue in its own table rather than risk matching the wrong one. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. Kalshi also runs a simpler market on which party wins the seat:

How Alaska votes: top four and ranked choice

Alaska holds one open primary in August for all candidates, and the top four go through to November. In the general election voters rank the candidates. If nobody wins more than half of first choices, the last-placed candidate is eliminated and their voters’ next choices are counted, round by round, until someone has a majority.

Two Alaska quirks matter for this race. A second Republican candidate on the ballot is also named Dan Sullivan, so the state’s ballot lists the senator as “Sullivan, Dan S.” And a ballot measure this year, Measure 2, would repeal ranked-choice voting and open primaries for future elections; it doesn’t change how this race is counted.

Why results will be slow

• Election night shows first choices only. Alaska’s early results don’t include the ranked-choice rounds.
• Late mail ballots. Mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day can still arrive and be counted after it.
• The ranked-choice count is November 18. If no one has a first-round majority, that’s when the rounds are run. Certification is targeted for November 25.
• Polls close last. 8 p.m. local time is midnight Eastern, and the Aleutians close an hour later.

Dates from the Alaska Division of Elections and Alaska Public Media, checked October 2026.

How this market settles

• Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on official certification. If the result isn’t confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves to “Other”.
• Kalshi’s candidate market resolves to the person who wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election. Its party market settles on which party’s senator is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, with early settlement possible once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.

Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026. See the election night hub for every state’s timing.

FAQ

Related: Senate control 2026 · Maine Senate race · Kansas Senate race · Election night hub · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap