Wisconsin governor race 2026 odds

Wisconsin’s governorship is open for the first time in 16 years after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers decided not to seek a third term. Democrat David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, faces Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany. The election is on November 3, 2026. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Who will win the Wisconsin governor race?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. Use the odds converter to compare it with sportsbook odds.

The race

Crowley won a close August primary. Tiffany has represented a mostly rural northern Wisconsin district in Congress since 2020. A September Marquette Law School poll had Crowley narrowly ahead, and AP described the race as a dead heat in mid-October. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.

Election night in Wisconsin

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Wisconsin can’t process absentee ballots before Election Day, and Milwaukee’s central count often reports late at night, so early returns can mislead. See every state’s timing on our election night hub.

How this market settles

• Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
• Kalshi settles on the party of the governor inaugurated after the 2026 election, and can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.

Rules as published on the venues’ governor markets, checked October 2026. Until a market settles, a price near $1 is a position you can sell, not a payout.

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Related: Michigan Senate race · Election night hub · Ohio governor race · All politics markets