Will the US government shut down again? Prediction markets trade on that question every time a funding deadline approaches. These are the live odds on the next deadline, from Polymarket and Kalshi where they list it.
Live odds · Kalshi
Next government shutdown: live odds
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
All shutdown markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
How shutdowns happen
Congress has to pass funding bills, or a temporary extension called a continuing resolution, before the government’s money runs out. If it doesn’t, agencies without funding have to stop non-essential work and many federal workers are sent home or work without pay until a deal is reached. Shutdown markets usually ask a precise question, such as whether the government will be shut down on a specific date, so read each market’s rules for exactly what counts.
The most recent shutdown began on October 1, 2025 and lasted 43 days, the longest in US history, ending on November 12, 2025.
What moves shutdown odds
- The calendar. Prices drift as a deadline approaches and jump when leaders announce a deal, or walk away from one.
- Votes on stopgap bills. A continuing resolution passing one chamber can cut the odds sharply.
- Political incentives. Shutdowns before an election are rarer: neither side wants the blame.
FAQ
Will there be a government shutdown?
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Related: Economy markets · All politics markets