Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, yet its 2026 race is one of the surprises of the cycle. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton on November 3, 2026, and polls in September were close. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the Kansas Senate race?
Live odds · both venues
Kansas Senate 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. A price between 35¢ and 65¢ means traders see a real contest.
The candidates
Roger Marshall, a physician and former congressman, was first elected to the Senate in 2020 and is seeking a second term. Adam Hamilton is the pastor of the largest United Methodist church in the country, in the Kansas City suburbs. September polls ranged from a narrow Hamilton lead to a mid-single-digit Marshall lead, and Hamilton outraised Marshall heavily over the summer. Donald Trump carried Kansas by about 15 points in 2024. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.
Why Kansas matters
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate. Most of their path runs through states such as Maine, North Carolina and Ohio; a seat like Kansas would be a bonus that makes the arithmetic much easier. If this price is near even on election night, it’s a sign the national environment strongly favours Democrats. See Senate control 2026 for the full picture.
Kalshi’s market on the closest Senate race of the cycle shows where traders expect the tightest finishes:
Live odds · Kalshi
Closest Senate race of 2026
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
More Kansas markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
How this market settles
- Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
- Kalshi settles on who is sworn in as Kansas’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.
Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026. Until a market settles, a price near $1 is still a position you can sell, not a payout. For when results come in across the country, see our election night hub.
FAQ
Who is favoured in the Kansas Senate race?
When did Kansas last elect a Democratic senator?
When is the election?
Related: Senate control 2026 · Iowa Senate race · Alaska Senate race · South Carolina Senate race · Election night hub · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap