Who will win the 2028 presidential election? It’s two years away, but prediction markets already price every plausible candidate, and they’ll move sharply once the midterms are over and campaigns start. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, for the general election and both parties’ nominations.
Who will win the 2028 election?
Live odds · both venues
2028 presidential election winner
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. This far out, even the favourite trades well below 50¢: the field isn’t set, and most candidates haven’t declared.
Republican nominee
Live odds · both venues
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Democratic nominee
Live odds · both venues
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Running mates
Kalshi also lists vice-presidential nominee markets for both parties. They are thinly traded this early and move mostly on speculation:
Live odds · Kalshi
2028 Democratic VP nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The 2028 calendar
The Democratic National Committee approved its early-state calendar in August 2026: South Carolina votes first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia through February. Iowa lost its early slot. Republicans set their own calendar separately. The general election is on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.
How to read early presidential odds
- Add up the field. With dozens of names listed, the favourite’s price tells you less than how the leading few compare with each other.
- Nominee × general. A candidate’s chance of winning the presidency can’t be higher than their chance of winning the nomination. If it is, one of the prices is off.
- Long-dated money. Cash tied up until 2028 earns nothing in the meantime, which tends to push long-shot prices up and favourites down a little.
- Thin markets. Many candidate markets trade small amounts. A single large order can move a long shot by several points.
How these markets settle
Polymarket’s 2028 winner market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on who is inaugurated if they haven’t by January 20, 2029. Kalshi’s settles on the next person inaugurated as president for the term beginning in 2029. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.
FAQ
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Related: 2026 midterms · House control 2026 · All politics markets · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap