Florida governor race 2026 odds

Florida elects a successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Republican Byron Donalds, a congressman endorsed by President Trump, faces Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party. The election is on November 3, 2026. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Who will win the Florida governor race?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance. Use the odds converter to compare it with sportsbook odds.

The race

Donalds won the August Republican primary over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and others, backed by Trump’s endorsement and heavy fundraising. Jolly represented a Tampa Bay district as a Republican before leaving the party over Trump. Florida has elected Republican governors in every race since 1998. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.

Election night in Florida

Most of Florida closes at 7 p.m. Eastern, but no results are released until 8 p.m. ET, when the Panhandle closes. Early and mail votes must be reported within 30 minutes, so most of the vote is usually counted quickly. See every state’s timing on our election night hub.

How this market settles

• Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
• Kalshi settles on the party of the governor inaugurated after the 2026 election, and can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.

Rules as published on the venues’ governor markets, checked October 2026. Until a market settles, a price near $1 is a position you can sell, not a payout.

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Related: Senate control 2026 · Election night hub · Ohio governor race · All politics markets