Type in any box and the others update. A prediction market share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a 62¢ share means a 62% implied chance. Fees are not included.
How the conversion works
Every format describes the same thing: how likely an outcome is and what you get back if it happens. A prediction market just states it most directly. Each share pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn’t, so the price of a share is the implied probability.
| Format | Example | What it means | From probability p |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | 62¢ | Pay 62¢ to win $1 | p × 100 cents |
| Implied chance | 62% | The market’s estimate | p × 100% |
| Decimal | 1.61 | Total return per $1 staked | 1 ÷ p |
| American (favourite) | -163 | Stake $163 to win $100 profit | -(p ÷ (1 − p)) × 100 |
| American (underdog) | +150 | Stake $100 to win $150 profit | ((1 − p) ÷ p) × 100 |
| Fractional | 19/31 | Profit per unit staked | (1 − p) ÷ p |
Worked example
Say a market on a Fed rate cut trades at 40¢. You put in $100:
- $100 buys 250 shares at 40¢ each.
- If the cut happens, each share pays $1: you get $250 back, a profit of $150.
- If it doesn’t, the shares are worth nothing and you lose the $100.
In sportsbook terms that is +150 American, 2.50 decimal or 3/2 fractional. All four describe the same 40% chance.
Comparing a market with a sportsbook
A bookmaker’s odds include its margin. Convert both sides of a bookmaker line to percentages and they add up to more than 100%, often 104–106% on a main market. The extra is the margin. A liquid prediction market has no built-in margin; its cost is the gap between the buy and sell price plus any fee. To compare fairly, convert the bookmaker line with the tool above and check it against the market’s ask price, not the last trade.
FAQ
What does a price of 62¢ mean?
Can a share trade above $1 or below 0¢?
Why don’t the Yes and No prices add up to exactly $1?
Is a higher price a better bet?
Related: No-vig calculator · Prediction markets vs sports betting · Price-gap scanner