Maine is one of the Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are targeting in their push for a majority. Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson on November 3, 2026, and the race is decided by ranked-choice voting. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the Maine Senate race?
Live odds · both venues
Maine Senate 2026: who wins?
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it doubles as the market’s estimate of the chance. Polls in October showed a race within a few points, so expect this one to move on election night.
Margin of victory
Live odds · Kalshi
Maine Senate: margin of victory
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
How Troy Jackson became the nominee
Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, was not the Democrats’ original nominee. Graham Platner left the race after allegations he denies, and the state party chose Jackson as its replacement at a convention in July 2026. Collins was first elected in 1996. Independent ratings in the summer put the race at toss-up or close to it. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.
Ranked-choice voting and why results may be slow
Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal general elections. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes on election night, the last-placed candidates are eliminated and their voters’ next choices are counted until someone has a majority.
That second stage doesn’t happen on election night. Ballots or memory devices from every town are brought to the state capital, Augusta, where staff log and verify them before running the tally, a process that has taken several days in past elections. Reporting from October 2026 warned that the Collins–Jackson result might not be known for days or even weeks if the race goes to a ranked-choice count.
How this market settles
- Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certified result if they haven’t.
- Kalshi settles on who is sworn in as Maine’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.
Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.
Related combos
Both venues list combo markets that tie Maine to other close races. They pay only if every leg comes true:
Senate combo markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
FAQ
Who is favoured in the Maine Senate race?
Does Maine use ranked-choice voting for the Senate?
When will we know who won in Maine?
Why isn’t Graham Platner on the ballot?
Related: Senate control 2026 · Michigan Senate race · Iowa Senate race · 2026 midterms · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap