Texas Senate race 2026 odds

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988, which is exactly why this race has drawn so much money on prediction markets. These are the live odds for the November 3, 2026 election from Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side.

Margin of victory

Polymarket also lets you trade on how close it will be. Each range is a separate outcome:

Why this race matters

Republicans can lose up to three Senate seats and keep their majority. A Democratic win in Texas would make that much harder, so the Texas price feeds directly into the Senate control market. Texas is also huge and expensive to campaign in, so fundraising, turnout in the big metro areas, and the Hispanic vote along the border tend to decide it.

Related Texas markets

How to read these odds

If a candidate trades at 60¢, the market gives them about a 60% chance, roughly the same as +150 for their opponent at a sportsbook. Use the odds converter to translate any price. Watch the margin market too: when the most likely range is close to zero, the race is tighter than the headline price suggests.

Election night: how this market settles

• Polymarket resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they haven’t, it waits for the official certified result.
• Kalshi settles on who is sworn in as Texas’s senator for the term beginning in 2027, but can settle early once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner.

Texas is large and counts millions of votes, so a close race may not be called on the night. Until the market settles, a price of 90¢ or more is still a position you can sell, not a payout. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.

FAQ

Related: Senate control 2026 · Maine Senate race · Michigan Senate race · 2026 midterms · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap