Will the Fed cut rates? Will inflation come in hot? Is a recession coming? Economy markets turn those questions into prices that update the moment new data lands. Here are the most traded economy markets on Polymarket and Kalshi right now.
Economy: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated just now.
Markets vs forecasts
Fed decision markets tend to track the futures market used by professional traders very closely, so they are a quick, readable way to see what is priced in before a meeting. Data markets, on inflation or jobs numbers, are thinner and can swing more on a single trader’s view.
Kalshi lists many of these markets as ranges: for example, one market for each possible size of a rate change. The board shows the leading range; open the market on Kalshi to see the full ladder.
Market guides
In-depth pages with live odds from both venues, side by side, plus weekly and monthly US gas price markets:
Fed rate decision odds
Hike, hold or cut at the next meeting, and how many hikes this year.
Open →Recession odds
The market's recession odds, and what counts as a recession.
Open →Inflation (CPI) odds
The market's odds for every possible CPI reading.
Open →Oil price odds
WTI price levels, set dates and the record high.
Open →US gas price odds
Where the AAA national average ends up.
Open →