The 2026 US midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with 36 governor races. These are the live prediction market odds on who controls Congress afterwards, from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
Who will win the House?
Live odds · both venues
House control after the 2026 midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Seat-count markets and the generic ballot are on our House control page.
On the night itself, follow every race and each state’s results timing on our election night hub.
Who will win the Senate?
Live odds · both venues
Senate control after the 2026 midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Republicans went into the midterms holding 53 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 47 (including independents who caucus with them). With a Republican vice president to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. See our Senate control page for the key races.
Balance of power
Polymarket’s balance-of-power market combines both chambers into one question, so you can see the market’s view of every combination, from a Democratic sweep to a split Congress:
Live odds · Polymarket
Balance of power after the 2026 midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Key races
Senate races: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 3 min ago.
How to read midterm odds
A price of 70¢ on “Democratic Party” to win the House means traders put the chance at about 70%. It doesn’t mean Democrats will win 70% of seats. Prices move on polls, fundraising numbers, candidate news and, on election night, on the vote count as it comes in. Expect the biggest swings in the final days and on the night itself.
Markets aren’t polls. They react faster, but they can also overreact, and thin markets on individual House seats can be moved by a single large trader. The chamber-control markets above are among the most heavily traded in the world, which makes them more reliable.
Election night: how midterm markets settle
Polls closing doesn’t settle anything. Prices keep trading as votes are counted, and a chamber or a race can trade at 95¢ or more for days before it pays out. A market pays only when it settles under its written rules, and Polymarket and Kalshi use different ones:
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| House and Senate control | The party that wins a majority of voting seats. If that’s unclear: the first Speaker’s party (House), or 50 seats plus the vice presidency, then the first President pro tempore’s party (Senate). | Can settle early on a consensus of media calls. Otherwise the party of the Speaker (House) or President pro tempore (Senate) on February 1, 2027. |
| Single races | Once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate; otherwise on the official certified result. | On who is sworn in or inaugurated, with early settlement allowed once a consensus of media organisations projects the winner. |
| Runoffs | Count for the seat they decide, even if held after November. | The winner is whoever is sworn in, so a runoff decides it. |
Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026. Read them on the venue before you trade, and see how each platform resolves disputed markets.
Why results can take days
- California’s count. Mail ballots postmarked by election day count if they arrive within seven days, and counties routinely take weeks to finish. Close House seats there are often among the last to be called.
- Maine’s ranked-choice tally. If no Senate candidate wins a majority of first choices, ballots are brought to Augusta for a ranked-choice count that can take a week or more. See our Maine Senate page.
- Georgia’s runoff. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two meet again on December 1, 2026.
- Recounts and legal challenges. Very close races can trigger recounts, which delay certification.
FAQ
When are the 2026 midterms?
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How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
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Related: House control 2026 · Senate control 2026 · Maine Senate race · Michigan Senate race · Ohio governor race · 2028 election odds · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap