Which party will win the House in 2026? All 435 seats are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and Republicans go in defending a narrow majority. These are the live odds on House control from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, plus the seat-count markets that show how big a win traders expect.
Who will win the House?
Live odds · both venues
House control after the 2026 midterms
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that party wins control, so 80¢ means the market puts the chance at about 80%. The Gap column shows how far the two venues disagree, in percentage points.
How many seats will each party win?
Control is a yes-or-no question. Seat-count markets tell you more: a party that is 90% to win the House could still be expected to win by five seats or by fifty. Each range below is its own outcome.
Live odds · Kalshi
Democratic House seats after the midterms (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Polymarket
Republican House seats after the midterms (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The national vote
Kalshi also lists the national House popular vote, the “generic ballot”, as a margin-of-victory market. A big popular-vote lead usually, but not always, turns into a seat majority, because district lines decide how votes convert into seats.
Live odds · Kalshi
House popular vote margin (generic ballot)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Individual House races
Polymarket lists many single districts, named by state and number (for example PA-08). Most are thinly traded, so a single large order can move them; treat them as a rough guide, not a forecast.
House races: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
Election night: how House markets settle
The two venues settle House control in different ways, and the difference matters if the result is close:
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| What counts | The party that wins a majority of voting seats in the 2026 election | The party that has won control of the House |
| If it’s unclear | The party of the first Speaker elected in the new Congress | The party of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027 |
| Sources | State election authorities, Congress and a consensus of credible reporting | Media projections for early settlement; otherwise the Speaker’s party |
Polymarket’s rules also say that seats decided by a runoff count for the runoff winner, and that a member-elect who switches party before Congress organises still counts for the party they were elected under. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026; read them on the venue before you trade.
See when each state usually reports on our election night hub.
FAQ
Who is favoured to win the House in 2026?
How many seats do you need to control the House?
When will the House markets pay out?
Is the House market the same as the balance-of-power market?
Related: 2026 midterms · Senate control 2026 · All politics markets · Every live Polymarket–Kalshi price gap