Polymarket vs Kalshi price gaps

The same question often trades on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and the two rarely agree exactly. This scanner tracks events listed on both venues, matches every outcome, and ranks them by how far apart the prices are. Use it to find the cheaper venue for a position you already want, or to spot where the two crowds disagree.

How to read the scanner

• Polymarket and Kalshi show each outcome’s latest price, read as a chance (how we get it: methodology). Click a price to open that market on the venue.
• The underlined price is the cheaper venue for buying that outcome.
• Gap is the difference in percentage points. One to three points is normal background noise; anything bigger is worth a closer look.
• Outcomes priced below 4% or above 96% on average are left out: on long shots and near-certainties, small trades swing the price and the gaps mean little.

Why the two venues disagree

Polymarket’s main exchange is international and settles in USDC; Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that works in dollars. Different users, different money and different fees mean prices drift apart, especially on news. US traders can’t easily reach Polymarket’s main exchange and many non-US traders can’t use Kalshi, so the gaps don’t always close quickly. On fast-moving events, such as an election count or a breaking story, one venue often reacts minutes before the other.

Which events are tracked

We match events by hand, so every pair asks the same question on both venues: control of Congress, major races, 2028 presidential and nominee markets, international elections, and season-long sports markets such as the Super Bowl, MVP races and European football titles. We leave out pairs that look similar but ask different questions. For example, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” is about touching a level, while “Bitcoin price at the end of 2026” is about where it closes. We add new pairs as both venues list them.

FAQ

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