Who will win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars? These are the live odds for the 99th Academy Awards from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, plus the nomination markets that trade before the shortlist is out. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that film or person wins, so it reads as the market’s chance.
Best Picture odds
Live odds · both venues
Oscars 2027: Best Picture winner
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Some films are listed under their English title on one venue and their original title on the other; those show up as separate rows with a dash in the missing column.
Best Picture nominations
Until January 21, Polymarket also trades on which films will be nominated at all. A film that is a near-lock to be nominated can still be a long shot to win, which is why these prices are much higher than the winner odds above.
Live odds · both venues
Oscars 2027: Best Picture nominees
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Acting categories
Live odds · Kalshi
Oscars 2027: Best Actor winner (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Polymarket
Oscars 2027: Best Actor nominations (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Polymarket
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor nominations
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Every Oscars market
Oscars markets ranked by trading
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 2 min ago.
How Oscars markets settle
- Polymarket resolves Best Picture to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award, using official Academy information and the live broadcast. A film that isn’t nominated resolves “No” as soon as nominations are announced. If two films tie, the one listed first alphabetically wins the market.
- Kalshi resolves “Yes” for the film that has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Kalshi notes the market isn’t endorsed by the Academy.
Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026. Before you trade, check whether a market is about the nomination or the win: they settle on different days and price very differently.
What moves Oscar odds
- Festival and critics’ reception. Autumn festivals and year-end critics’ awards set the early order.
- Guild awards. The producers’, directors’ and actors’ guilds name their winners in the weeks before the ceremony, and they’re watched as the best signals of how Academy members think.
- Box office and campaigns. Studios spend heavily on awards campaigns, and a late push can lift a contender.
- Nominations morning. On January 21, every film left off the shortlist drops to zero and the rest reprice in minutes.
FAQ
When are the 2027 Oscars?
Which film is favoured to win Best Picture?
Can a film win if it isn’t nominated?
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