Gemini Predictions is the prediction market inside Gemini, the crypto exchange. You trade yes/no event contracts in US dollars, on questions such as where Bitcoin will finish the year. Unlike brokers that route orders to Kalshi, Gemini runs its own exchange: the CFTC granted its affiliate Gemini Titan, LLC a designated contract market (DCM) licence, the same type of federal licence Kalshi holds. This profile covers how it works, where it stands legally and how it compares, checked October 2026.
How Gemini Predictions works
- Contracts: each one is a yes/no question that pays out if the answer is yes. The price reflects the market’s view of the chance, as on Kalshi.
- Money: trades use US dollar balances in your Gemini account.
- Launch: Gemini announced the licence on December 10, 2025 and launched the product that month. At launch it was offered in all 50 states, with no sports contracts and zero trading fees for a limited time.
- Markets at launch: crypto prices and other events, such as regulatory outcomes. Gemini has also said it plans US crypto futures, options and perpetuals, which aren’t part of the prediction product.
Legal status
Gemini Titan is federally regulated by the CFTC. Some states argue event contracts are unlicensed gambling, and New York has gone to court over it:
- On April 21, 2026, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, alleging they run illegal gambling businesses, let users aged 18 to 20 trade (New York’s gambling age is 21) and offer contracts on New York college teams. The state wants the businesses stopped, plus forfeiture, restitution and penalties. The case was pending when we checked.
For where things stand state by state, see Is Kalshi legal in New York? and Is Kalshi legal?
Gemini vs other ways to trade
| Gemini Predictions | Kalshi | Coinbase | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Who runs the exchange | Gemini Titan (own DCM) | Kalshi (own DCM) | Kalshi, via Coinbase’s app |
| Money | USD | USD | USD |
| Sports at launch | No | Yes | Yes |
If you already hold crypto on Gemini, its prediction markets are the convenient option. For the widest range of markets, Kalshi and Polymarket US list far more. See Kalshi alternatives for the full field.
FAQ
Is Gemini Predictions legal?
Does Gemini have sports prediction markets?
Is Gemini Predictions the same as Kalshi?
Sources, checked October 28, 2026:
- Decrypt: Gemini wins CFTC approval for prediction markets (Dec 11, 2025)
- CasinoBeats: Gemini launches prediction markets (Dec 17, 2025)
- New York Attorney General: lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini (Apr 21, 2026)
Related: Coinbase · Crypto.com · Best prediction market apps · All platforms