Who will leave the Trump administration next? Polymarket and Kalshi both price it, name by name, and the tables below are the live odds. The last round settled on November 6, 2026, when Trump announced that his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, was leaving and that Stephen Miller would replace her. Both venues have opened a new “next out” market, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom Trump defended on November 4, is the name traders are watching.
Who will leave the Cabinet next?
Live odds · both venues
Next to leave the Trump Cabinet
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person is next out, so 30¢ means about a 30% chance. Only one person can be next, so each column should add up to roughly 100%. Both markets opened on November 6 and count departures after Wiles. Polymarket’s runs to December 31, 2028 and lists “None before 2029”; Kalshi’s runs through Trump’s term. The Cabinet here includes the chief of staff and other Cabinet-level posts, not just department heads.
Who will leave before 2027?
Live odds · Kalshi
Who leaves their role in the Trump administration in 2026? (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
This one is different: several people can leave, so the prices don’t add up to 100%. Each row is its own question about one person.
Pete Hegseth out as Defense Secretary?
Live odds · Polymarket
Hegseth out by November 30? (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Polymarket
Hegseth out by December 31? (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
- The reports. Multiple sources told CBS News that Trump hadn’t made a final decision but was asking advisers whether firing Hegseth was the right move. A source told NBC News that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was being considered as a replacement.
- The denials. Trump said on November 4 that Hegseth was doing a very good job. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said Hegseth is “100% committed” to staying until the end of Trump’s term.
Susie Wiles leaves
Trump announced on Friday, November 6, that he “wanted to make a change” as chief of staff, and that Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller would take over on Monday, November 9. Wiles submitted her resignation the night before, ABC News reported, after sources said Trump was privately blaming her for the midterm losses. Trump said she would move to his political operation. Wiles said the job had been “the honor of a lifetime”. In October Trump had told NBC News she would stay “until the end”.
That settled both “next to leave the Cabinet” markets on Wiles, because both count the chief of staff as a Cabinet member: Kalshi on November 6, Polymarket the same day. Kalshi’s 2026 departures market also settled Yes on her.
Who has already left
Before Wiles, four Cabinet members left in the three months to late May 2026. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer were ousted, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigned, Fortune reported on May 26.
How these markets settle
The rules differ in a way that matters, so read them before comparing prices:
- Polymarket’s Hegseth markets resolve Yes as soon as a resignation or removal is announced, whenever it takes effect.
- Kalshi’s 2026 market needs an actual departure date inside the period. Someone who announces in December but leaves in January doesn’t count as leaving in 2026.
- Kalshi’s next-out market counts someone leaving or announcing that they will.
- Polymarket’s “next to leave” market goes to the first person announced after November 6, 2026. If several go at once, it resolves to whoever actually leaves first, and alphabetically by last name if that’s simultaneous.
A person can also change jobs without leaving. Kalshi’s 2026 market is about the named role, so read each contract. Rules as published on each market, checked November 9, 2026.
What moves these prices
- Reports versus denials. Sourced stories move these markets quickly, and a denial doesn’t always move them back.
- The new Congress. Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, as our midterms page explains, and that changes the oversight officials can expect from 2027.
- The calendar. Each week without news takes a little value out of a short-dated Yes.
Worked example
Say a Yes share on one official trades at 40¢ and you buy 50 for $20. If that person goes in time, the shares pay $50, a $30 profit before fees. If not, you lose the $20. You can sell at the market price at any time before then.
FAQ
Is Pete Hegseth leaving?
Who is favoured to leave the Cabinet next?
Who has left Trump’s Cabinet in 2026?
Why are Polymarket and Kalshi different on the same person?
Sources, checked November 5 and 9, 2026:
- Fox23: Trump considering firing Hegseth, report says (Nov 4, 2026)
- ABC7: Trump dismisses prospect of replacing Hegseth (Nov 5, 2026)
- ABC News via ABC7: Trump says Wiles is out, Miller will replace her (Nov 8, 2026)
- NBC News: Trump says Wiles will remain (Oct 17, 2026)
- Fortune: Tulsi Gabbard resigns (May 26, 2026)
- Polymarket and Kalshi market rules
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