Next White House press secretary odds

Who will be Trump’s next White House press secretary? The job has been empty since Katie Zacharia left on October 16, 2026, five days after she started. Polymarket and Kalshi both list markets on who gets it, and Polymarket adds one on when the pick is announced. These are the live odds.

Who will be the next press secretary?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person gets the job, so 12¢ means about a 12% chance. Both venues list dozens of names, and no one is far ahead, so a single report can move the order. The two venues don’t settle on the same event, as the rules section below explains, so a gap between them isn’t free money.

When will the pick be announced?

Each date pays if Trump or the administration names a new press secretary by 11:59 p.m. ET that day. The later date should always trade at least as high as the earlier one, since an announcement in November also counts for December.

How the job came open

• Leavitt leaves. On August 12, 2026, Trump announced that Karoline Leavitt would step down at the end of the month to spend more time with her young children and family. She had held the job since January 2025.
• Zacharia’s five days. Trump named Katie Zacharia on October 11 in a Truth Social post, and she started the next day. She had been a senior communications adviser at Trump Media, CNBC reported. Her first briefing, on October 13, was widely criticised, and on October 16 NBC News reported that she was out. A senior official said she would move to a new role.
• No rush. Two sources told NBC that Trump was “highly unlikely” to name a replacement soon. Asked on October 23 whether he had news on the job, Trump said: “No, nothing much. We’re in no rush.” Lead Stories described Anna Kelly as the principal deputy press secretary in late October. No successor had been announced when we checked on November 9, 2026.

How these markets settle

• Polymarket’s “next press secretary” pays on the next person the White House announces as Zacharia’s replacement by December 31, 2027. An acting or interim appointment doesn’t count, and once a pick is announced, a later withdrawal doesn’t change the result. If no one is named by then, it resolves to “Other”.
• Kalshi’s market pays on the first person to formally hold the job before January 20, 2029, in a permanent capacity. Acting or interim holders don’t count.
• The difference matters. Polymarket settles on the announcement, Kalshi on someone actually holding the post. A nominee who is announced but never starts would pay on Polymarket and not on Kalshi.
• “Announced by…?” pays Yes for each date on or after an announcement of a new, non-acting press secretary, regardless of when that person starts.

Rules as published on each market, checked November 9, 2026.

What moves these prices

• Reports of a shortlist. A named source saying someone has been interviewed or offered the job can reprice the whole ladder within minutes.
• Who briefs. Whoever stands at the podium during the vacancy gets attention from traders, but an acting role doesn’t count for either venue.
• Time. Each week without an announcement lowers the “by November 30” price, even if nothing else happens.

FAQ

Sources, checked November 9, 2026:

• FOX 9: Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt leaving the White House (Aug 12, 2026)
• CNBC: Trump names Katie Zacharia press secretary (Oct 11, 2026)
• NBC News: Katie Zacharia is out after five days (Oct 16, 2026)
• Lead Stories: no successor named (Oct 24, 2026)
• Settlement rules: the Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (checked Nov 9, 2026)

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