Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? As of November 12, 2026, no major Republican has formally declared, and Donald Trump can’t run again. Polymarket and Kalshi already price the field to succeed him. These are the live odds from both venues side by side, plus where the leading names stand and what’s known about the primary calendar.
2028 Republican nominee odds
Live odds · both venues
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person wins and accepts the nomination, so 30¢ reads as about a 30% chance. With no declared field, the prices also carry the question of who runs at all.
Where the leading names stand
- JD Vance, the vice-president, said at a Michigan town hall in October 2026 that there was a chance he won’t run, The Washington Post reported. The same month he said he believed Trump would endorse him if he did, ABC News reported. He won the CPAC straw poll on March 28, 2026 with 53%.
- Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, came second in that straw poll with 35%. He has said he won’t run and has backed Vance.
- Declared so far: only lesser-known candidates, such as former NBA player Royce White, who announced on August 12, 2026.
- Ruled out: Greg Abbott, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley and Mike Pence are among those who have said they won’t run.
Trump himself can’t be elected again: the 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice.
The Republican primary calendar
The Republican National Committee approved its early calendar on September 10, 2026, keeping Iowa first, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The dates haven’t been set. The party chose Houston for its 2028 convention in August 2023.
Running mate odds
Live odds · both venues
2028 Republican VP nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Vice-presidential markets are thin this early, so prices can swing on a single order.
How these markets settle
- Polymarket: Yes if the named person wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for president, based on official party sources. A later replacement of the nominee doesn’t change the result.
- Kalshi: Yes if the named person wins and accepts the Republican nomination for president in 2028. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Rules as published on each market, checked November 10, 2026.
How to read early nominee odds
- Endorsements matter. A Trump endorsement could reprice the whole field at once, which is why markets react to every hint of one.
- Compare with the general election. A candidate’s chance of winning the presidency can’t exceed their chance of winning the nomination. See the 2028 election odds.
- Long shots trade rich. Money tied up until 2028 earns nothing, which tends to lift long-shot prices a little.
FAQ
Who is the favourite for the 2028 Republican nomination?
Is JD Vance running in 2028?
Can Trump run for a third term?
What is the first 2028 Republican contest?
Sources, checked November 10, 2026:
- Wikipedia: 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries, for candidate statements as reported by The Washington Post, ABC News and others, the CPAC straw poll and the RNC calendar
- Settlement rules: the Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (checked Nov 10, 2026)
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