Democrats won both chambers of Congress on November 3, 2026, so the next question is who leads them. Polymarket and Kalshi both list markets on the next Speaker of the House and the next Senate majority leader, and both are trading Chuck Schumer’s chances of keeping his job as the party’s Senate leader. These are the live odds.
Who will be the next Speaker of the House?
Live odds · both venues
Next Speaker of the House
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person becomes Speaker, so it reads as the market’s chance. The AP called the House for Democrats at 1:28 a.m. ET on November 4, and Hakeem Jeffries, the party’s House leader, formally asked his colleagues to back him for Speaker in a letter that day, ABC News reported.
- The caucus vote. House Democrats hold their leadership elections behind closed doors on November 18. To be the party’s nominee, Jeffries needs a simple majority of the caucus.
- The floor vote. The full House elects the Speaker when the new Congress meets in January. The winner needs a majority of the members voting for a named candidate: 218 if all 435 members vote.
House majority leader
Live odds · Polymarket
House majority leader of the next Congress (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
This market goes to the first person chosen as majority leader for the 120th Congress. With Democrats in the majority, that’s the number two in the party’s House leadership, picked in the same closed-door elections.
Who will be Senate majority leader?
Live odds · both venues
Next Senate majority leader
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
The AP called the Senate for Democrats at 11:37 p.m. ET on November 3, so the majority leader will be whoever Senate Democrats elect as their leader. That vote is expected in December by secret ballot, Al Jazeera reported on November 5.
Next Senate Democratic leader
Live odds · Kalshi
Next Senate Democratic leader (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Kalshi’s market pays on the winner of the party’s next Senate leadership election, so it settles on the same December vote as the majority leader markets above.
Schumer’s challenge
Chuck Schumer has led Senate Democrats since 2017 and says he’ll keep the job: “I’ll be re-elected as majority leader,” he said, according to Al Jazeera. Several of the senators-elect who helped win the majority have said they won’t commit to him, as of November 5:
- Won’t back Schumer: Juliana Stratton (Illinois), Adam Hamilton (Kansas) and Troy Jackson (Maine).
- Want new leadership: Peggy Flanagan (Minnesota), Chris Pappas (New Hampshire) and James Talarico (Texas), who said he wants to hear Schumer’s plans first.
- Backs a challenger: Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) says he’ll support Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland.
No one had formally announced a challenge when Al Jazeera reported. Van Hollen is the name most often mentioned, and has said Democrats shouldn’t commit to Schumer without a bold agenda. A secret ballot means public statements are only a rough guide to the count.
How these markets settle
- Speaker. Polymarket resolves to the first person the House of the 120th Congress elects as Speaker. Kalshi’s resolves to the first Speaker after Mike Johnson, any time before January 1, 2031. In practice both point to the January vote unless Johnson stays on.
- Senate majority leader. Polymarket’s pays on the first announcement of the next majority leader from the party that holds the majority, and stays open until January 3, 2027. Kalshi’s pays on the winner of the majority leader election for the 120th Congress, with early settlement possible once media organisations project the winner.
- Senate Democratic leader. Kalshi’s contract pays on whoever wins the party’s next leadership election.
- House majority leader. Polymarket resolves to the first person selected as majority leader for the 120th Congress, using official House information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules as published on each market, checked November 9, 2026.
FAQ
When is the vote for Speaker of the House?
Will Chuck Schumer stay Senate leader?
Who controls Congress in 2027?
Why do the two venues differ on the Speaker?
Sources, checked November 9, 2026:
- ABC News via ABC7: Jeffries launches his bid for Speaker (Nov 4, 2026, updated Nov 6)
- Al Jazeera: division among Democrats over Schumer’s role (Nov 5, 2026)
- AP race calls via NPR’s results pages (Nov 3–4, 2026)
- Settlement rules: the Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (checked Nov 9, 2026)
Related: House control 2026 · Senate control 2026 · Midterms 2026 · Next press secretary odds · 2028 presidential election