Is a US recession coming? Economists disagree, and so do the headlines. Prediction markets turn the question into a single number that updates with every GDP and jobs release. These are the live recession odds, plus the data markets that feed them.
Recession in 2027?
Live odds · Kalshi
Recession in 2027? (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
The price of “Yes” is the market’s chance of a recession under this contract’s definition, which is narrower than you might expect (see below).
Recession this year
Live odds · Kalshi
Recession in 2026? (Kalshi)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
What counts as a recession here
Kalshi’s 2027 contract uses the popular rule of thumb: it pays “Yes” if real GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, measured by the quarter-on-quarter annualised change in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates. Q4 2026 followed by Q1 2027 would count. The market settles when that happens, or after the advance estimate for Q4 2027 if it doesn’t. Rules as published on the market, checked October 2026.
That is not the official definition. In the US, recessions are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which looks for a significant decline in activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months, and often announces its call long after the fact. A recession by the NBER’s standard can happen without two negative GDP quarters, and the reverse is possible too. Always read which definition a market uses before you trade it.
The data behind the odds
Recession odds move on the same numbers that feed these markets. Kalshi lists them as ranges, with one outcome per possible reading:
Live odds · Kalshi
US real GDP growth: next quarterly release
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Kalshi
US unemployment rate: next jobs report
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
All economy markets
Economy: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 3 min ago.
How to read recession odds
- Odds, not a verdict. 20% means the market sees about a one-in-five chance, so most of the time it expects no recession.
- Watch the data markets. If traders expect weak GDP and rising unemployment, the recession price usually follows.
- Interest rates matter. The Fed raised rates in September 2026. Higher rates slow borrowing and spending; see our Fed decision odds.
- Long-dated contracts are thin. A market that settles in early 2028 ties up money for over a year, so a few traders can move it.
FAQ
What are the odds of a recession in 2027?
What is the definition of a recession?
When does the 2027 recession market settle?
Related: Inflation (CPI) odds · Fed rate decision odds · All economy markets · House control 2026