Will inflation come in hot or cool? Kalshi lists a market on every monthly consumer price index (CPI) release, with one outcome per possible reading, so you can see the whole range traders expect before the number comes out. These are the live inflation odds for the next releases.
Headline CPI: next monthly reading
Each outcome is a threshold for the month-on-month change in CPI, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Above 0.2%” at 60¢ means traders see about a 60% chance the monthly rise beats 0.2%.
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CPI: next monthly change
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Inflation over the year
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CPI: year-on-year rate
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Core inflation
Core CPI leaves out food and energy, which swing a lot from month to month. The Fed watches it closely as a guide to underlying inflation.
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Core CPI: next monthly change
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
Live odds · Kalshi
Core CPI: year-on-year rate
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
How CPI markets settle
Kalshi settles each market on the figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes, at one decimal place. For example, its core CPI year-on-year contract for November 2026 pays “Yes” if core CPI rose by more than 2.0% in the twelve months to November, as reported to one decimal. If a government shutdown delays the data, the market stays open until the release comes out, up to six months after the shutdown ends. Rules as published on the market, checked October 2026.
The BLS publishes CPI once a month, usually around the middle of the following month, so the market for a given month trades for several weeks after the month itself has ended.
How to read inflation odds
- Read the ladder, not one rung. If “above 0.2%” is 70% and “above 0.3%” is 30%, the market puts about a 40% chance on a reading of exactly 0.3% (more than 0.2, not more than 0.3).
- Monthly vs yearly. The monthly change is noisy; the year-on-year rate moves slowly because it adds up twelve months.
- Why it matters for the Fed. Hot inflation readings raise the odds of rate hikes. See our Fed decision odds.
- These are thin markets. Data markets trade far less than Fed or election markets, so a single trader can move a rung several points.
All economy markets
Economy: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 4 min ago.
FAQ
What is the market predicting for the next CPI report?
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