Fed rate decision odds

Will the Fed raise, cut or hold rates at its next meeting? These are the live odds on Federal Reserve decisions from Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. In 2026 the question has turned around: after years of debate about cuts, the Fed raised rates in September, and markets are now pricing whether more hikes follow.

Fed decision in December 2026

Each outcome is the size of the change at that meeting. A price of 70¢ on “25 bps increase” means traders put the chance of a quarter-point hike at about 70%. Outcomes are mutually exclusive, so the prices in each table should add up to roughly 100%. The two venues word the outcomes differently (“25 bps increase” on Polymarket, “Hike 25bps” on Kalshi), so they are shown separately.

The nearest meetings

The October meeting runs October 27–28, 2026, with the decision due on the 28th. Once a meeting has passed, its market settles and the next one becomes the main event.

How many hikes in 2026?

All Fed markets

How Fed markets settle

Both venues settle on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement after the meeting. Polymarket measures the change in the upper bound of the target range and rounds odd sizes up to the nearest 25 basis points, so a 12.5 bp move counts as 25. Kalshi lists each size of cut, hold or hike as a separate outcome, only one of which can pay. Polymarket’s hike-count market also counts emergency moves between meetings and stays open to December 31. Rules as published on each market, checked October 2026.

What moves these prices

• Inflation data. The monthly consumer price index (CPI) and the Fed’s preferred measure, PCE inflation, are the biggest scheduled movers.
• Jobs reports. A strong labour market gives the Fed room to hike; a weak one argues for patience.
• Fed speeches. The chair’s press conference and members’ speeches between meetings are watched for hints.
• The dot plot. The December meeting comes with the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which shows where officials expect rates to go.

Fed decision markets tend to track the futures market professionals use to price rate moves. They’re a quick, readable way to see what’s priced in.

FAQ

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