Israel voted for a new Knesset on October 27, 2026. Who becomes prime minister now depends on coalition talks, and in the days around the vote it was the most traded political market on our boards. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi on who will lead the next government, which party finished first, and how long Benjamin Netanyahu stays in office.
Who will be Israel’s next prime minister?
Live odds · both venues
Next prime minister of Israel
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person becomes prime minister, so it reads as the market’s chance. Kalshi also lists “No one”, which pays if nobody is installed as prime minister through this election’s government formation before October 27, 2027.
Who gets the first mandate?
Live odds · both venues
First mandate to form a government
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
How a government is formed
No party has ever won a Knesset majority on its own, so the prime minister is whoever can assemble 61 seats. Under Basic Law: The Government, the president consults the parties and, within seven days of the official results, gives the task of forming a government to a Knesset member willing to take it on. That member has 28 days, which the president can extend by up to 14 more. If they fail, the task can pass to someone else, and if nobody succeeds, Israel goes back to the polls. Pre-election polling averaged by the Jerusalem Post had neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition bloc reaching 61 seats. The official count wasn’t final when we checked on October 28, 2026.
More Israel election markets
Israel election: most traded markets
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 3 min ago.
Live odds · Polymarket
Netanyahu out as prime minister by…
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
How these markets settle
- Polymarket resolves to the next person officially appointed and sworn in as prime minister after the 2026 election; a caretaker doesn’t count. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, it resolves to “Other”.
- Kalshi resolves to the first person who, through government formation after this election, is formally appointed, sworn in or invested as prime minister and commands the Knesset’s confidence before October 27, 2027.
Rules as published on each market, checked October 28, 2026. Election markets on both venues can stay open for weeks while coalition talks run.
FAQ
Who is favoured to be Israel’s next prime minister?
How many seats does it take to form a government in Israel?
How long does government formation take?
Sources, checked October 28, 2026:
- Basic Law: The Government (sections 7 and 8)
- Jerusalem Post: pre-election poll average (Oct 25, 2026)
Related: Geopolitics markets · France 2027 · Spain election · Polymarket vs Kalshi price gaps