Spain election 2026: next prime minister odds

Spain holds a snap general election on November 29, 2026, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after Congress defeated his housing plan. Prediction markets are trading who will be the next prime minister. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi.

Who will be Spain’s next prime minister?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person becomes prime minister, so it reads as the market’s chance.

Why Spain is voting

Sánchez leads a minority government that relied on Sumar and the Catalan party Junts. In early October 2026, his housing relief plan was defeated in Congress by the People’s Party (PP), Vox and Junts, and he called an early election; the dissolution decree was published on October 6. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are up, plus 208 Senate seats. The main candidates are Sánchez for the Socialists (PSOE), Alberto Núñez Feijóo for the PP, Santiago Abascal for Vox, and Ada Colau for the Broad Front, the alliance formed by most of Sumar’s member parties.

In Spain the prime minister must win a confidence (investiture) vote in Congress, so the winner on election night isn’t automatically the next prime minister: coalition arithmetic and regional parties can decide it.

More Spain markets

How these markets settle

• Polymarket resolves to the next person who wins a confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies and is sworn in, forming a new government, by March 31, 2028. A caretaker doesn’t count, and if nobody takes office by then it resolves to “Other”.
• Kalshi lists the same question; check its rules for the exact settlement terms.

Rules checked October 28, 2026.

FAQ

Sources, checked October 28, 2026:

• Wikipedia: 2026 Spanish general election (date, dissolution decree of October 6, seats, candidates)

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