French presidential election 2027 odds

France elects its next president in spring 2027, and Emmanuel Macron can’t run again. Prediction markets have traded this race for months, with Marine Le Pen the long-running favourite. These are the live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi on who wins and who reaches the runoff.

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that candidate wins, so it reads as the market’s chance.

Who reaches the runoff?

The race so far

• Format: if no candidate wins an absolute majority on April 18, 2027, the top two meet in a runoff on May 2.
• Macron: the constitution (Article 6) bars a president from serving more than two consecutive terms, so he can’t stand.
• Marine Le Pen (National Rally): convicted in March 2025 of embezzling European Parliament funds and barred from office. On July 7, 2026 the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but cut the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, which cleared her to run. She has appealed further to the Court of Cassation, which is expected to rule by early January 2027.
• Declared candidates include Édouard Philippe (Horizons), Bruno Retailleau (The Republicans), Gabriel Attal (Renaissance), Raphaël Glucksmann (Socialists and Place Publique), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Unbowed) and Éric Zemmour (Reconquête), among many others.

The Court of Cassation ruling on Le Pen is the biggest known event before the vote: a ruling against her would reshape the race and these prices.

FAQ

Sources, checked October 28, 2026:

• Wikipedia: 2027 French presidential election (dates, Article 6, Le Pen appeal, declared candidates)
• The Connexion: 2027 polls and dates (Sep 24, 2026)

Related: Geopolitics markets · Spain election · Israel election · Odds converter