Greenland odds: will the US acquire it?

Will the United States get Greenland? Polymarket and Kalshi both list markets on whether the US buys or takes sovereignty over all or part of the island, and Polymarket adds one on an independence vote. The question changed shape in 2026: instead of a sale, the US, Denmark and Greenland signed a security agreement that leaves the island under Danish sovereignty. These are the live odds, and what each market actually needs to happen.

Will the US acquire Greenland?

Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if it happens, so 2¢ means about a 2% chance. Polymarket’s market needs an official announcement that the island will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026. Kalshi’s pays if the US buys at least part of Greenland from Denmark, with one contract for before 2027 and one for before January 20, 2029, the end of Trump’s term. The later contract has more than two extra years to pay out, so it can trade well above the 2026 ones.

Will the US get control of any part of it in 2026?

This market is broader. It also pays if a binding agreement gives the US primary or exclusive jurisdiction over a defined area, “Guantánamo-style”, where Danish and Greenlandic law doesn’t apply without US permission. Basing rights, access agreements and leases don’t count on their own, and nor does any US control that already existed when the market opened.

Will Greenland vote for independence?

This pays only if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority votes yes by December 31, 2026. A vote to join another country would also count.

Where things stand

• The security deal. On September 18, 2026, Trump announced an agreement with Denmark that he said gives the US “permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland”. A State Department official described permanent access, basing and overflight rights, NBC News reported. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said it recognises Denmark’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” and Greenlanders’ right to self-determination.
• Signed in New York. Trump, Frederiksen and Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, signed it in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It lets the US expand activity at Pituffik Space Base and opens the way for more US bases.
• Greenland approves. Greenland’s parliament passed it 16-0 with seven abstentions on November 3. It enters into force once Denmark’s parliamentary process is complete, and Danish lawmakers were due to debate it later in November, Al Jazeera reported. The island stays under Danish control, and the deal would still apply if Greenland later became independent.

As written, a basing and security deal like this one isn’t a purchase or a transfer of sovereignty, so on its own it doesn’t settle any of the acquisition markets above.

How these markets settle

• Polymarket sovereignty market: Yes if the US officially announces that the majority of Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, even if the handover comes later. A joint US-Denmark announcement counts; social-media posts alone don’t.
• Polymarket “part of Greenland” market: Yes on a binding agreement or legal instrument that transfers sovereignty over a defined area, or gives the US primary or exclusive jurisdiction there, by December 31, 2026. Frameworks, memorandums and basing deals don’t qualify alone.
• Kalshi: Yes if the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before each deadline.
• Independence market: Yes only on a referendum with a majority for independence by the end of 2026.

Rules as published on each market, checked November 10, 2026.

FAQ

Sources, checked November 10, 2026:

• NBC News: Trump announces agreement with Denmark on Greenland’s security (Sep 18, 2026)
• Al Jazeera: Greenland parliament approves security deal (Nov 3, 2026)
• Settlement rules: the Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (checked Nov 10, 2026)

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