Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026, and who will win its next presidential election? Polymarket and Kalshi both trade on Venezuela’s leadership after a year of upheaval. These are the live odds, with neutral background and, importantly, how the markets define who “leads”.
Who will be Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026?
Live odds · both venues
Venezuela's head of state on Dec 31, 2026
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Why Maduro can lead these odds
US forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and he faces drug and weapons charges in New York, which he denies. Two days later Venezuela’s Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to take over, and she was sworn in as acting president. But Venezuela’s government has continued to describe Maduro as the country’s only president, with Rodríguez acting in his place.
That matters because Polymarket’s market resolves to whoever officially holds the position of head of state on December 31, 2026, according to official government information, falling back to the UN’s protocol list if the government doesn’t say clearly. So the price measures the formal title, not who runs day-to-day government. Kalshi’s market asks who will “officially lead” Venezuela. Read each venue’s rules before comparing them.
Next presidential election
Live odds · Polymarket
Next Venezuelan presidential election winner (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
This market covers an election held by December 31, 2029; an appointment without a popular vote doesn’t count, and if no election takes place by then it resolves to “Other”. No election had been scheduled when we checked: Rodríguez told the UN in September that Venezuelans would decide the right moment.
Background
- October 2025: opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
- January 3, 2026: US forces captured Maduro and flew him to New York.
- January 5, 2026: Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as acting president.
- October 25, 2026: Machado returned to Venezuela after months in exile.
From AP, NPR, the Nobel Foundation and other reporting, checked October 2026.
FAQ
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