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Billboard chart odds

Weekly odds on the next #1 album and song on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100.

Polymarket and Kalshi list weekly markets on Billboard’s charts: which album debuts at #1 on the Billboard 200, which song tops the Hot 100, and where particular songs will rank. These are the live odds. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if it happens, so it reads as the market’s chance.

Next #1 album on the Billboard 200

Live odds · both venues

Billboard 200: next #1 album

Outcome Polymarket KalshiGap
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo 64%▼1 72%▲1 8 pts
The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore 5%▲3 30%▲28 25 pts
Dandelion - Ella Langley 4%▼14 9%▲8 5 pts
So Close To What — 7%— —
Stick Season — 6%▲4 —
Damascus Road — 5%— —
Heavy Is The Crown — 5%— —
I'm The Problem — 5%▲4 —

Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.

Next #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100

Live odds · Polymarket

Hot 100: next #1 song

Outcome Polymarket
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley 94%▲6
Housewife - Tate McRae 4%▼8

Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.

Both tables move on to the next chart week automatically once the current market settles.

More chart markets

How chart markets work

The Billboard 200 ranks albums and the Hot 100 ranks songs, and Billboard publishes both weekly, dated by chart week. A market for a given chart week settles on the published chart for that week. Big release weeks move these prices most, because a new album from a major artist can take #1 in its first week. Kalshi notes that its chart markets aren’t endorsed by or affiliated with Billboard. Rules checked October 28, 2026.

Related: Culture markets · Oscars · Odds converter