Ballon d'Or Odds 2027: Live Prediction Market Prices

Who will win the 2027 Ballon d’Or? The 2026 award went to Harry Kane on October 26, 2026, and the market for next year is already trading. These are the live odds from Polymarket, where each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that player wins.

2026 winnerHarry Kane

2026 women’s winnerAlexia Putellas

OrganisersFrance Football with UEFA

2027 award coversThe 2026–27 season

2027 Ballon d’Or odds

Live odds · Polymarket

2027 Ballon d'Or winner: live odds

Polymarket$5K traded

Outcome Polymarket

Lamine Yamal 27%▲10

Kylian Mbappé 17%▲1

Raphinha 12%▲1

Erling Haaland 10%▼1

Jude Bellingham 10%▼1

Michael Olise 9%▼2

Harry Kane 8%—

Desire Doue 7%▼1

Rodri 5%▼6

Vitinha 4%▼4

Ousmane Dembélé 4%▼7

Julian Alvarez 4%▼14

Declan Rice 3%▼32

Rayan Cherki 3%▼8

Cristiano Ronaldo 3%▼5

Bukayo Saka 3%▼16

Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.

A year out, the market is spread across a long list of names, and even the favourite trades at a modest price. Expect big moves in spring, when the Champions League knockout rounds and the title races are decided.

How the Ballon d’Or is decided

Season-based. The award now covers a full club season, roughly August to July, rather than a calendar year. The 2027 award will be judged on the 2026–27 season.
Voting. A panel of journalists from around the world votes on a shortlist of nominees published before the ceremony.
Organisers. France Football runs the award together with UEFA. Their announcement is the source Polymarket uses to settle the market.

What moves Ballon d’Or odds

Trophies. Champions League winners and players who win their league usually rise to the top. Voters reward winning teams.
Goals and big moments. Forwards with huge goal tallies dominate, as Kane’s 2026 win showed.
Injuries. A long layoff in the spring can end a candidate’s chances.
The shortlist. A player left off the nominee list can’t win, and their price collapses when it’s published.

How this market settles

Polymarket resolves to the player who wins the 2027 Ballon d’Or, using official information from France Football and UEFA. If several winners are announced, or the award is cancelled or not given by March 31, 2028, it resolves to “Other”. Rules as published on the market, checked October 2026.

The 2026 award

The 2026 ceremony was held on October 26 at the London Palladium. Harry Kane won the men’s award ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal, becoming the first English winner in 25 years, and Alexia Putellas won the women’s award for the third time. Ousmane Dembélé and Aitana Bonmatí were the 2025 winners. Checked October 2026 against recent reporting.

FAQ

Who won the 2026 Ballon d’Or?

Harry Kane won the men’s award and Alexia Putellas the women’s award, at a ceremony in London on October 26, 2026.

Who is the favourite for the 2027 Ballon d’Or?

The player at the top of the table above, updated every few minutes.

When is the 2027 ceremony?

The date hadn’t been announced when we checked in October 2026. Recent ceremonies have been held in the autumn.