Do Polymarket and Kalshi agree? Mostly, but not always. Every hour we record the biggest price gaps between the two venues on events they both list, and this page shows the largest gap we saw for each outcome over the past seven days. It updates by itself as new snapshots come in.
Data as of 27 Oct 2026, 22:35 EDT · 5 hourly snapshots since 27 Oct 2026, 18:31 EDT
Largest Polymarket vs Kalshi gaps, last 7 days
Each row is the largest gap recorded for that outcome in any hourly snapshot in the window, with both venues' prices at that moment. Gaps ignore fees, spreads and differences in resolution rules.
Right now
For the live picture, updated every five minutes, see the price-gap scanner:
Live · 38 events tracked on both venues
Biggest Polymarket vs Kalshi price gaps
Latest prices, read as chances. The cheaper venue for each outcome is underlined. Gaps ignore fees, spreads and differences in each market's resolution rules. Updated every 5 minutes.
Why the two venues disagree
- Different rules. Even on the same question, the venues can use different sources, deadlines or settlement mechanics. We only track pairs we’ve checked ask the same thing, but small wording differences remain.
- Different traders. Kalshi is US-regulated and funded in dollars; Polymarket’s main exchange is crypto-funded and closed to Americans. Each draws a different crowd with different views.
- Fees and frictions. Moving money between the venues takes time and costs money, so small gaps can persist without anyone being able to profit from them.
- Thin books. On less-traded outcomes, the latest price can be stale. A gap between two such prices isn’t the same as a gap between prices you could actually buy and sell at.
Methodology
- Pairs. We track events listed on both venues that we’ve checked ask the same question (currently the pairs in our scanner, mostly elections, sports futures and politics).
- Prices. Latest prices from Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s public APIs, read as chances; see our methodology. Outcomes are matched across venues by name.
- Filter. Outcomes priced below 4% or above 96% on average are ignored, because gaps there mostly reflect thin books.
- Snapshots. Every hour we store the ten largest gaps. For each outcome, the table shows the largest gap recorded in the last seven days, the prices at that moment and how many hours it spent in the top ten.
- Limits. Gaps ignore fees, bid-ask spreads and rule differences, and hourly snapshots can miss brief spikes. This is a description of prices, not a trading signal.
FAQ
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Related: Price-gap scanner · Kalshi vs Polymarket · Leaderboard movers