Who will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee? As of November 12, 2026, no major Democrat has formally declared, but Polymarket and Kalshi already price dozens of possible candidates. These are the live odds from both venues side by side, plus who has said they’re thinking about it, who has ruled it out, and the primary calendar.
2028 Democratic nominee odds
Live odds · both venues
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that person wins and accepts the nomination, so 20¢ reads as about a 20% chance. With no declared field, the prices partly reflect who traders think will run at all. They also include people who have said they won’t run, such as Jon Ossoff, who could still change their minds.
Who will announce a run before 2027?
Live odds · Polymarket
Who will announce a presidential run before 2027? (Polymarket)
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Updated every few minutes.
This Polymarket market pays Yes if the person officially announces a 2028 run by December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. A statement in a speech or on social media counts; filing paperwork isn’t required. It covers both parties.
Where the possible candidates stand
- Kamala Harris said on October 14, 2026 that she was still undecided about running, The Hill reported.
- Gavin Newsom told CNN on September 14, 2026 that he won’t run if Harris does, NBC News reported.
- Pete Buttigieg said on August 3, 2026 that he was “more inclined than not” to run, USA Today reported.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in September 2026 that she would decide after the midterms whether to run for president or for the Senate, The New York Times reported.
- Ro Khanna said in July 2026 that he was “strongly considering” a run, Reuters reported.
- Ruled out: Jon Ossoff, Wes Moore, Tim Walz, Amy Klobuchar, Jared Polis, Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders are among those who have said they won’t run.
The Democratic primary calendar
| Date | State |
|---|---|
| January 22, 2028 | South Carolina |
| February 1 | Nevada |
| February 8 | New Hampshire |
| February 15 | New Mexico |
| February 22 | Michigan |
| February 29 | Virginia |
| March 7 | Super Tuesday |
The Democratic National Committee approved this early calendar on August 15, 2026. Iowa lost its early slot. The number of delegates needed to win hasn’t been set yet.
Running mate odds
Live odds · both venues
2028 Democratic VP nominee
Latest price of each outcome, read as a chance. Names are matched across venues automatically; check each venue's rules before comparing, as resolution wording can differ. Updated every few minutes.
Vice-presidential markets trade far less than the nominee market, so a single order can move them a long way, and the two venues can disagree by many points.
How these markets settle
- Polymarket: Yes if the named person wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for president, based on official party sources. If the nominee is later replaced before election day, the market doesn’t change.
- Kalshi: Yes if the named person wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Rules as published on each market, checked November 10, 2026. Both pay only on winning and accepting the nomination, so a candidate who wins the primaries but turns it down would pay No.
How to read early nominee odds
- Running is the first hurdle. Until candidates declare, a price mixes the chance someone runs with the chance they win once they do.
- Compare with the general election. A candidate’s chance of winning the presidency can’t exceed their chance of winning the nomination. Check the 2028 election odds for both.
- Long-dated money. These markets won’t settle until 2028, and cash tied up that long earns nothing, which tends to lift long-shot prices.
FAQ
Who is the favourite for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
Has anyone declared for the 2028 Democratic nomination?
When is the first 2028 Democratic primary?
Is Kamala Harris running in 2028?
Sources, checked November 10, 2026:
- Wikipedia: 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries, for candidate statements as reported by The Hill, NBC News, USA Today, The New York Times and Reuters, and for the DNC calendar
- Settlement rules: the Polymarket and Kalshi market pages (checked Nov 10, 2026)
Related: 2028 presidential election odds · 2028 Republican nominee odds · Congress leadership odds · All politics markets