Bitcoin price prediction: live market odds

Where will Bitcoin’s price go? Instead of another analyst’s target, here’s what traders with real money on the line expect, live from Polymarket and Kalshi. Each price is the market’s chance that Bitcoin reaches, or stays above, a given level by a given date.

Bitcoin in 2026: which prices will it hit?

Polymarket’s yearly ladder has one market for each price level. “↑ 120,000” is the chance Bitcoin trades at or above $120,000 at any point before the year ends; “↓ 60,000” is the chance it trades at or below $60,000.

How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? (Kalshi)

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All Bitcoin markets

How to read a price ladder

Read the levels together, not one by one. If “↑ 100,000” trades at 40% and “↑ 110,000” at 20%, the market thinks there’s about a 20% chance Bitcoin’s high for the year lands between those two levels. The gaps between rungs show where traders expect the price to stall.

These markets measure two things at once: where traders think Bitcoin is heading, and how volatile they expect it to be. A coin that swings a lot gives far-away levels a real chance even if the expected direction is flat. That’s why even the “↓” levels below today’s price can trade at meaningful odds.

Prediction markets vs price predictions

• Analyst targets are one person’s view, often with no cost for being wrong.
• Prediction market odds are a probability for each level, set by people who lose money when they’re wrong.
• Options markets on crypto exchanges price similar probabilities, mostly for professional traders. Prediction markets put the same idea in plain language.

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