Best AI model, AI company IPOs and the biggest tech questions, priced by traders.
Which lab has the best AI model? When will the big AI companies go public? Which company will be the world’s largest? Tech markets put prices on the questions the industry argues about, and they move on model launches, benchmark updates and IPO news. These are the most traded tech and AI markets on Polymarket and Kalshi right now.
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 5 min ago.
How tech markets work
Many AI markets settle on a public leaderboard, such as the LMArena text leaderboard, checked at a set time. That makes the exact rules unusually important: which leaderboard, which view (for example with “style control” on or off), and what time it’s checked can all change the answer. Company markets usually settle on official exchange data or a consensus of credible reporting.
Tech markets are also prone to sudden jumps. A surprise model release can move a “best AI” market from 90% to 10% in an afternoon. Treat a high price as the market’s view today, not a lock.
Market guides
In-depth pages with live odds from both venues, side by side: