AI IPO odds

When will the big AI companies go public, and how much will they be worth on day one? Polymarket lists markets on the timing and first-day market value of IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, plus which listing will be the biggest of 2026, a race SpaceX currently leads after its June debut. These are the live odds.

Largest IPO of 2026

This market resolves to the company with the highest market capitalisation at the close of its first trading day, among companies that complete an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

Anthropic

OpenAI

What’s been reported

Several outlets reported in 2026 that both Anthropic and OpenAI had filed confidential draft registration statements with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the first formal step towards an IPO. A confidential filing doesn’t make the prospectus public, so the share count, price range and listing date aren’t known until a company files publicly. SpaceX has already listed: it began trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 under the ticker SPCX and closed its first day at $160.95 a share, a market value of about $2.1 trillion, according to CNBC and NPR. That figure is the one any later 2026 IPO has to beat in the market above. Anthropic and OpenAI hadn’t listed when we checked in October 2026.

How these markets settle

• First-day market cap markets use the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day, from the primary exchange’s official listing data. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket.
• If there’s no IPO by December 31, 2027, the Anthropic and OpenAI market-cap markets resolve to a “No IPO” outcome.
• “IPO by…?” markets have one date per outcome; each pays if the listing happens by that date.

Rules as published on each Polymarket market, checked October 2026. Read the full rules before trading, especially on what counts as an IPO (for example, direct listings).

How to read IPO odds

• Timing and value are separate bets. A company can be very likely to list this year and still very uncertain on its day-one value.
• Brackets add up. The market-cap brackets, including “No IPO”, should sum to about 100%. The spread across brackets shows how uncertain traders are.
• News moves these fast. A public filing, a price range or a delay can reprice the whole ladder within minutes.

More tech markets

FAQ

Related: Polymarket valuation · Kalshi valuation · Best AI model odds · All tech markets · Is Polymarket legal?