PredictIt is the oldest real-money political prediction market in the US. It started in 2014 as a research project, survived a CFTC attempt to shut it down, and in 2025 won higher limits and a new operator. It lists only politics and policy questions, and caps how much each trader can put into any one market. This review covers how it works, its fees, who can use it and how it compares, checked October 2026.
How PredictIt works
Like other prediction markets, PredictIt lists yes/no shares priced from 1¢ to 99¢ that pay $1 if the outcome happens. Each trader can invest up to a set amount in any one contract. Markets cover US elections, Congress, the presidency, policy and some international politics. There are no sports, crypto or economics markets.
Its legal history
- 2014: PredictIt launched under a CFTC staff “no-action” letter (Letter 14-130), issued for an academic research market run by Victoria University of Wellington, with limits on position size and traders per contract.
- 2022: the CFTC withdrew the letter and told PredictIt to close its markets.
- 2023: in Clarke v. CFTC, the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found the withdrawal likely arbitrary and capricious and ordered an injunction, keeping PredictIt open.
- July 2025: the CFTC amended the letter (Letter 25-20). Operation moved to a US non-profit, the 5,000-trader cap per contract was removed, and the per-contract limit was tied to the federal individual campaign-contribution limit, reported as $3,500, up from $850.
PredictIt is still not a designated contract market like Kalshi; it operates under that no-action relief. From the CFTC’s letters, the Fifth Circuit’s opinion and reporting, checked October 2026.
Fees
- On trades: no per-trade fee. PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on each winning trade.
- Withdrawals: PredictIt has historically charged a fee on withdrawals. Check its current fee page before depositing.
Compared with Kalshi, PredictIt costs more on winning trades and nothing on losing ones. See Kalshi vs PredictIt.
Who can use it
PredictIt is open to US persons aged 18 or over. You fund your account in dollars, by bank transfer or card.
PredictIt vs the big exchanges
| PredictIt | Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | Politics only | Everything | Everything |
| Legal basis | CFTC no-action relief | CFTC exchange | Offshore (main); CFTC (US app) |
| Limit | $3,500 per contract | Per-market limits | No fixed cap (main exchange) |
| Fees | 10% of winning profit | Per-trade taker fee | Per-trade taker fee |
Live political markets elsewhere
PredictIt’s prices aren’t in our data feed. For comparison, these are the most traded political markets on Polymarket and Kalshi right now:
Politics: most traded
Latest price for “Yes”, shown as an implied chance. Polymarket volume in USD, Kalshi in contracts. Updated 5 min ago.
Pros and cons
- Pros: focused on politics, including niche questions; fees only on wins; simple, long-running platform.
- Cons: $3,500 cap per contract; politics only; thinner markets than Kalshi or Polymarket; not a CFTC-designated exchange.
FAQ
Is PredictIt legal?
Can PredictIt be used for sports?
What’s the PredictIt limit?
Related: Kalshi vs PredictIt · Polymarket vs PredictIt · Politics markets